Sunday, September 23, 2012

Red Racing Horses Analysis on the 33rd

CA-33: 2011: 44.4%D May: 43.9%D Sept: 43.9%D
I list the Democratic percentage because for challenger Bill Bloomfield to knock off Congressmen Henry Waxman, he'll need to win over 80% of the non-Democrats. That's a tall order, no matter how independent he might be. Even taking 90% of Republicans would mean he'd have to grab 70% of independents. No one does that in a close race. Bloomfield would need to chip away at Waxman's Democrats. That'd seem unlikely.
Yet Bloomfield's hope of getting Democrats is based on that Waxman having never represented anyone south of the airport. Waxman is a Democratic icon, and fits very well with Westside progressives. The beach cities have a slight Republican lean. Democrats there lean more to families than young progressives. Bloomfield can rack up margins with Republicans on the Palos Verdes Peninsula, but he'll have to snipe Democrats in the South Bay to have a shot.


This analysis is more promising than depressing.

Mr. Bloomfield I believe will takeinat least 15% of the Democratic vote.

I say this because the reform-Democrats and the union-Democrats are splitting the party throughout the state of California, and Bill Bloomfield has led the charge on reforming the power of public sector unions to take money of out the employee's paycheck without the worker's permission. This reform is on the November ballot under Prop 32, which is gaining support throughout the state.

I know and believe that the Republican sentiment is strong enough South of Dockweiler to get the vote out for Bloomfield. The chance to remove Waxman from power once and for is just too much to avoid.

Let's consider that Bill cannot get any Democratic votes. The number of Decline to States and Republicans creates 56% -- if Bill gets all the Republicans and a good portion of the Independents, then Waxman is toast.

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