Waxman Facing Redder Competition

Waxman's district has gotten about six points redder. It's now a mere (?) 64% Obama, and Waxman is only keeping about half of his current constituents. This area will overlap with a number of interesting races, including AD-66 (where Craig Huey might do well in a swingy Assembly district) and a little of SD-27, where Fran Pavley faces Todd Zink.

26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

by Xenocrypt on Wed Jul 18, 2012 at 10:06:11 AM PDT

(http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/07/18/1111114/-Second-quarter-House-fundraising-Which-challengers-kicked-ass)

The below has superimposed in red outlines the new 33rd in contrast to Waxman's current 30th district.

Waxman has lost half of his liberal support, not pushed up from the South with the centrist constituency of the South Bay.



I am certain the Huey assembly race will draw out a number of conservative and centrist-minded voters in the South Bay section of the 33rd Congressional District. . .

The voting demographics, based on the LA Registrar, also indicate that Waxman is facing a 12-point loss:

	Old 30th CD*	New 33rd CD	Change
Dem	51%	44%	-7%
Rep	23%	28%	5
Ind	22%	22%	none
Other	5%	5%	none
Net redistricting loss for Waxman:			-12%

(Source: LAvote.net)
*"Old 30th adds up to 101% because of rounding errors)

Waxman has lost representation. Even though the current voting records, per Daily Kos, point out that Obama won these precincts at 64%, the incumbent President's rising unpopularity will either discourage voters from coming to the polls or will move disaffected Democrats and Independents to vote for Bill Bloomfield.

No matter how one reads the dramatic change in demographics, Waxman has a fight on his hands, and Bloomfield has more than  a fighting change of taking this district and ousting the 38-year incumbent.